Predicting unplanned hospital readmissions

The number of unplanned readmissions is an important quality improvement indicator for Australian hospitals, as it has a direct impact on costs and patient outcomes. It is a useful indicator for patient multi-morbidity to identify patients that should potentially have different treatment or discharge plans. The objective of the Health Insights Challenge project was to develop a predictive model to determine the likelihood of an unplanned hospital readmission. The outcome was a validated analytical model that predicts the likelihood of an unplanned hospital readmission occurring within 30 days after a given in-patient episode. An ‘all-cause’ model does not pay attention to any specific disease or diagnosis groups. The predicted likelihood of an unplanned readmission occurring can assist care workers and clinicians in planning treatment and discharge processes.